India's Rising March Temperatures Threaten Wheat Production and Food Security

India is set to experience one of its warmest March months on record, with above-average temperatures expected to persist throughout the month. This alarming trend raises concerns over the country’s wheat production, as excessive heat during this critical period could reduce yields for the fourth consecutive year. According to sources within the India Meteorological Department (IMD), both maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal, potentially affecting the maturing wheat crop and other winter crops like chickpeas and rapeseed.

India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, has been relying on a strong harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports after three consecutive years of poor yields. However, if temperatures continue to rise, the government may be forced to reconsider its wheat trade policies. The current 40% import duty, designed to protect domestic farmers, could be lowered or removed to facilitate imports and stabilize domestic supply.

The IMD is expected to release its official forecast for March temperatures on Friday, but early indications from senior officials suggest a persistent heatwave could grip major wheat-growing regions. Daytime temperatures are projected to rise significantly from the second week of March, with some areas expected to exceed 40°C (104°F) by the end of the month. Such extreme temperatures could result in heat stress for crops, disrupting their growth and reducing overall yields.

India has already witnessed the devastating effects of unseasonal heat on its wheat crop. In 2022, an unexpected surge in February and March temperatures shriveled wheat plants, forcing the government to ban exports to secure domestic supply. A similar pattern now threatens the 2025 harvest, as wheat-growing states in northern and central India brace for an early summer. Some regions could see temperature spikes of up to 6°C above normal, which would be particularly damaging during the grain-filling stage when wheat kernels develop.

Beyond wheat, the rising temperatures could also impact other crucial winter crops. Chickpeas and rapeseed, planted between October and December, require cooler weather conditions throughout their growth cycle. Excessive heat during this period could lead to premature ripening and reduced yields. An IMD official highlighted these risks, stating that March will not be favorable for wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed, as crops may experience severe heat stress.

The agricultural market is already reacting to the threat of another disappointing harvest. Wheat prices in India surged to record highs in February due to dwindling supplies, and traders fear that prolonged heat could drive prices even higher. A New Delhi-based dealer from a global trade house noted that February had already been warmer than usual, and if March follows the same pattern, wheat production could suffer a major setback.

With wheat production at risk, India may be forced to adjust its policies to maintain domestic food security. The government has maintained high import duties to support local farmers, but if domestic production falls short, authorities may need to reconsider trade restrictions to allow overseas shipments. Any policy changes regarding wheat imports could have far-reaching economic and political implications, particularly in a country where food availability remains a critical concern.

India is now entering the summer season earlier than expected, creating significant challenges for the agricultural sector. The looming heatwave threatens to reduce yields, increase food prices, and put pressure on policymakers to intervene. As the IMD prepares to release its official temperature forecast, farmers and traders are watching closely, hoping for a shift in weather patterns that could salvage the 2025 wheat harvest. If extreme temperatures persist, the government may have no choice but to rethink its approach to wheat imports to ensure adequate supply for the country. Will India be able to overcome this challenge, or will another year of climate-induced crop failures push it toward greater reliance on global markets?